China’s smart projector market sold 829,000 units in the third quarter of 2026, down 26.2% from a year earlier, according to RUNTO data reported by MyDrivers on November 3. Revenue fell 27.1% to 1.23 billion yuan, about $185 million at current rates. Laser TVs are not included.
The year-ago base was 1.124 million units and 1.69 billion yuan, and the new figures check out against it. RUNTO says the last four quarters each fell by more than 20%. Its first-half report counted nine straight quarters of decline through June, which makes this the tenth. The second quarter had already slipped below one million units for the first time since 2022.
The number that stands out sits further down RUNTO’s summary. Laser light sources took 19.9% of third-quarter units, up 5.7 percentage points. Run those shares against the totals and laser sales come to about 165,000 units this year against about 160,000 a year ago. Everything else went from roughly 964,000 units to 664,000, a 31% drop.
Those are our sums from RUNTO’s rounded percentages, not unit counts it has published. Still, the direction is hard to argue with. The market lost about 295,000 sales in twelve months, and on these numbers every one of them came from non-laser machines.
Inside the laser group the argument is over. Triple-laser models made up 98.1% of laser units, which works out to around 162,000 projectors, or close to one in five of everything sold in China last quarter.
Dividing revenue by units gives an average of about 1,484 yuan ($223), against 1,504 yuan a year earlier. That is a drop of just over 1%, in a quarter when the laser share rose sharply. Brighter, costlier light sources should have pushed the average up, so something else is pulling down. Part of it is laser itself getting cheaper: XGIMI now sells a 4K triple-laser Z7X at 2,699 yuan.
RUNTO’s own explanation is timing. The third quarter falls between the 618 and Singles’ Day sales, brands hold their launches for those dates, and competition this summer ran mainly on existing models. The first-half average, which includes 618, was about 1,625 yuan.
RUNTO also points past the calendar. It says consumer demand has not visibly recovered, that inefficient suppliers are being cleared out, and that the projector’s place among big screens in the home is changing. That last phrase is a polite way of describing what cheap 85-inch televisions have done to the category.
The top ten online brands took 74.0% of units and 81.7% of revenue. XGIMI led both tables. OBE, which RUNTO calls the leader of the single-panel LCD route, finished second by units and third by revenue. JMGO was second by revenue and Vidda fourth, both leaning further into higher-priced DLP models.
OBE’s position explains why panel makers keep turning up in this category. TCL CSOT supplies its LCD panels, and BOE panels went into the GlowBox R1, a 699-yuan newcomer launched into this same shrinking market last month. Single-panel LCD is where the volume is, and panels are what those companies sell.
Nine-month sales now stand at about 2.885 million units and 4.57 billion yuan. Using RUNTO’s growth rates to back out last year’s figures, the same nine months of 2025 came to around 3.9 million, and the fourth quarter added about 1.3 million to reach the reported full-year total of 5.203 million.
If this year’s fourth quarter falls by another 20%, 2026 ends near 3.9 million units. The 2022 peak was 6.18 million. That projection is ours, and Singles’ Day could still move it, which is why this year’s state subsidies and flagship price cuts matter more than usual.
The other response is to leave. XGIMI’s first-half report showed domestic revenue down 28.7% and overseas revenue up 87.6%, bringing the two close to level. Dangbei has built its American range along similar lines, and the N3 Max shows what the mix shift looks like away from laser: a sealed LCD engine rated at 1,000 ISO lumens, VIDAA with licensed Netflix, and a price of $449.99 on Amazon this week.
RUNTO’s fourth-quarter figures should arrive early next year. They will show whether a 20% decline is still the floor, or whether Singles’ Day can stop the run at ten.